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The most fascinating thing science taught me was hypothesis-led thinking

It's the proposed explanation for a phenomenon. Comes from the Greek word hupothesis, meaning "to suppose"

One takes this hypothesis and sets out to prove it or disprove it.

If proven, you conclude. It becomes a theory or a law.

Here is the trouble with the process
Confirmation bias
The tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or hypothesis

And here is the deal about confirmation bias
Everyone knows that we fall prey to it
Or, in other words
People expect you to fall for it, because they know they have fallen for it

Now imagine people

When I meet someone, I very quickly form a hypothesis on that person
I have become faster over time, because I care for how good I am with it

My hypothesis is not yet my conclusion. It will take time – months and years – before I can safely conclude on an individual.

But I do have a hypothesis.
And I might share it with others, with the intent of proving or disproving it

People call that "being judgmental"
Because they expect confirmation bias to kick in.
They are sure that my hypothesis will end up being the conclusion, because hey, that's how it works.

Having a hypothesis is important

Having the ability to differentiate between hypothesis and conclusion, is even more important

Having the ability to have your hypothesis misunderstood as conclusion, is what eventually matters

Scrolling through your feed

You come across a post by a friend.

It's long. But it has several likes. And a tempting start.

You begin to read it.

You realize it's bullshit. Or something you don't care about. Or don't agree to. Or don't indulge in.

You of course won't comment.

But there is a very high chance, you will end up liking the post.

Because – you don't want to come across as an asshole. You have gone through the effort and the like, in a weird way, is YOUR redemption.

Ever wondered why 👍 is almost allways the end of most conversations?
It's the most useful emoticon out there

In other words, the like is you way of saying – this isn't worth sharing or commenting. I don't care enough.

Because the ones who care enough – engage.

They talk, they encourage, they refute, they probe.
They engage.

Social media likes are quite the opposite. They mean people didn't quite care enough with your content – so they simply said "I agree"

"I agree" means quite the opposite on social media

2 separate incidents caught my attention last week

A "motivational" post on LinkedIn
Usain Bolt has run 115 seconds in all his Olympic races combined and made $119Mn
That's $1Mn per second
#motivation #success
This is bullshit at its best. If I could I would crucify the original writer.

A conversation with a leading founder CEO from India
I met this gentlemen at an awards night sometime back. And he asks me, "so how does it feel to be rising so high in such a short period of time?"
And I replied, "it feels great that my 16 years of hard work is finally paying off"
(His company started 16 years back – and he has worked his ass off to be where he is today. Little do people know)

I am shocked at the amount of motivational garbage nowadays that sells itself on instant / overnight success.

Not caring to look beyond the obvious. The struggle. The background.

And then Elon Musk signed off day before – in an honest admission

It should be clear – success doesn't come overnight. It requires intense hard work, going through massive ups and downs, giving up a lot in life
And there is still no guarantee.

Because people who pursue it don't have a goal in mind. They simply have a process. A way of living life.
They are scared to make goals – what will they do once they hit them?

But the world of today will have you believe otherwise.
That a million dollars per second is success.
That 30under30 is success
That 50under50, if there is any, is bullshit and not worth talking
That a story of consistent hard work isn't as exciting as that of born genius
That winning the lottery is sexier than building a net worth

Winning the lottery is overnight success. But then lottery isn't success.
Don't confuse luck with success!

Saying no to someone is supremely hard.

We are hard wired to belong – to a tribe, a community, a group.
And in the past saying no meant isolation. Perhaps even death.

And while saying no nowadays mostly doesn't come with a death certificate, the habit has stayed.

If I say no – I will not belong. I will hurt the person. A negative image of mine will be created.

Here is a reminder

When you say no – you say no to the request, not to the person.

True grace is refusing someone in a way they don't feel rejected

Here are the 3 states for a potential customer

• Yes, I want your product/service
• Maybe
• No, I don’t want your product/service

Unfortunately, most sales people will rank these 3 states (in terms or desired outcome for them) as

1. Yes
2. Maybe
3. No

When in my opinion, after a yes, the most desired outcome for any sales outfit should be

NO! 

We don’t need your services right now 

We don’t think you are right for the job

We already have something similar working for us

No, we can’t work with you for now 

But we have been trained to not take no for an answer. Keep perusing.

Doesn’t work anymore

The best gift you can give yourself is to be so good that you get a yes or a no, right away.

“Maybe” is this false sense of hope.

Can I meet you in person to explain in more detail? 

Can we give you a free trial instead to see if it changes your mind?

Can I explain the benefits once more

All in hope!

The hit rate of this approach is far far lesser than if you were to come back with a fresh new product/service for the same customer or pursue new customers.

Because sales organizations are so poor at accepting a no, customers are incentivized to keep lying and give this false sense of hope.

Imagine the total value of all hot, warm and cold leads in the sales funnels of the world today

And the waste of human effort that goes into pursuing it.

As a sales professional, learn how to take NO as a closure.

A sign to move on. To improve the product or sell the same product to someone else.

And as a customer, force yourself to say no as soon as you realize it.

Don’t linger

Reaching out to the same customer with the same product everyday and expecting a yes from a maybe, is insanity! 

Step 1

Advice is what you seek when you know the answer but you wish you didn’t. 

All of you have choices when taking decisions.

And one of those choices is our preferred one.

We know of it.

If we were to toss a coin, we would find ourselves wishing for that option’s side to show up.

So stop lying and identify the choice that you wish to go for

Step 2 

Humans tend to overestimate the pain we feel and underestimate the happiness we experience

Once you have identified the choice, imagine yourself going for the choice

And imagine the worst case scenario once you have taken the choice

The worst possible scenario that you could find yourself in

Step 3

Getting comfortable with your loss is far more valuable than getting excited about your gains

See if you can make yourself comfortable with the worst case scenario

Do not try to mitigate it. That destroys the logic.

Instead assume the worst will happen and then see how would you feel, how would you react

If you find yourself ok with this scenario, go for it.

Else, the other option it is.

As humans, we tend to calm down a lot more if we are aware of the worst, than if we dream about the best!  

Blue pill: 

Restart your life 10 years back, with all the knowledge you know today 

Red pill: 

Fast forward to 50 years with $10Mn in your bank account 

People judge you based on the choice you make. Rarely questioning why you made the choice. 

You could realize you haven’t learnt enough, and thus the red pill. 

Or even with what you know you won’t be able to get to $10mn by 50 and thus the red pill. 

You could realize $10Mn is nothing for you at 50 and you want a shot at more. Thus the blue pill. 

Or the journey is more important to you than the destination and thus the blue pill. 

The pill you take doesn’t define you. The reason does 

The decisions you take in life don’t define you. The reasons behind those decisions do. 

Here is a random prediction 

There are more meaningless “I love you” being spoken as of this moment, than all meaningful and meaningless “I need help” 

People don’t seek help. 

From other people. From books. From videos. From content. From life. 

There is a misplaced sense of pride that stops them

Pride will make you afraid.

Pride will make you feel powerful when you are not. 

Pride will force you to not learn. 

Pride will ask you to not ask. 

For help. 

Everytime I pretend to be smart and in control, I learn nothing. 

Every time I ask (for help), I learn a lot. 

Every time I say “I need help” someone helps.

I just don’t say it too often

Pride has left more people alone, than loneliness ever will. 

Every professional team is characterized by 2 core aspects 

Knowledge (/skills) and values 

And through this you can create a management consultant’s dream tool – a 2×2 matrix 

So there are 4 kinds of people who could be on your team 

1. Don’t have the same knowledge and don’t share the same values 

These are usually not part of the team. Even if they creep in, they are easy to find and get picked out. 

2. Have the same knowledge and share the same values

As rare as they are, these are the ones that truly move organizations forward. These are the team members everyone craves for 

3. Have the same knowledge but don’t share the same values

Super super dangerous. Because here is the deal about knowledge and values 

Knowledge is acquired 

Values are adopted 

And the minute one of the team members acquires more knowledge than the other, the gap in values makes this knowledge gap even harsher. To the point that it can’t be even explained. 

I can’t code better than you but I will steal code to make myself better 

I am a better sales guy than you and I will bribe my customers to always stay ahead 

I am better with people than you are, so I will manipulate them to agree to me 

4. Don’t have the same knowledge but share the same values 

The tribe you should be looking for.

The way all hiring should be done 

The quadrant based on which teams should be built 

I can’t code better than you so I would love for you to review my code for me 

I am a better sales person than you, so come along and we will close together

I am better with people than you are – let me tell you how 

I am not as good as you, but I will seek your help to become better 

From now on, whenever you meet your colleagues, question which quadrant do you fall in 

And ask yourself, what can I do, if at all, to move us to the quadrant of same knowledge and values. 

If you can’t, then move yourself or the person out of the team! 

Here are 3 predictions for the future 

1. People entering the workforce today will most likely never die (from natural causes). Some of them might move to Mars
2. In a decade or so, we will be hiring computers with the right culture. Do they speak the language we speak and operate by values we live by
3. Humans will cease to exist on payroll. Talent will become on demand and officespace as a concept will become obsolete 

So if your job today has a low probability of fuck up or the impact of your fuck up is non material – get out of that job! 

Now!

Because these are the first jobs that will be taken away

In the future, humans will do jobs that are extremely prone to fuck ups. That requires a human to take a call. Despite limited data, through emotions, gut, analysis. Matched with the ability to imagine the future. 

It’s called judgement, today 

It will be called “being human” tomorrow 

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